Let us turn back to the Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP) in the build-up to the 2019 general elections. CUPP was formed with the bold claim of unseating President Muhammadu Buhari. It was a mega-coalition of over 40 political parties, including the PDP, SDP, ADC, and others. Despite the noise and the optics, CUPP collapsed under its own weight. Internal disagreements, ego clashes, lack of a central figure, and the inability to agree on a unified presidential candidate spelled doom. When the dust settled, CUPP had become a glorified press conference coalition, not a political force.
Fast forward to 2025, and the ADC is attempting to lead yet another coalition. It is being paraded as a “third force,” a phrase Nigerians have become all too familiar with. But where is the structure? Where is the mobilization? Where is the unifying candidate that commands national presence and loyalty?
The truth is, coalitions in Nigeria often fail for five key reasons:
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Lack of Ideological Unity: Most coalitions are not driven by a shared vision for governance but by a desperate bid to seize power. This creates internal contradictions that explode before any real movement begins.
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Absence of a Nationally Accepted Figurehead: Unlike the APC coalition in 2014 that rallied around Muhammadu Buhari, recent coalitions lack a candidate with national appeal. The ADC coalition is no different.
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Weak Political Structures: Parties like the ADC have no deep roots in the grassroots. They do not have polling unit agents, state coordination strength, or loyal followership that could translate into votes.
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Funding and Logistics Deficit: Winning elections in Nigeria requires enormous resources. These coalitions neither have the financial capacity nor the organizational discipline to compete against a party like APC that controls state and federal apparatus.
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Internal Division and Ambitions: Personal ambitions override collective interest. Everyone wants to lead. The fight over who becomes presidential candidate, vice, or who controls what structure often tears these coalitions apart from within.
These are not assumptions, they are proven patterns in our political history. Nigerians have witnessed similar efforts from movements like the National Democratic Coalition (NADECO) in the '90s, to the more recent “Third Force” movement led by Prof. Pat Utomi, which fizzled out without a spark.
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is no political lightweight. He understands coalitions, after all, he masterminded the APC merger in 2013, one of the only successful coalitions in modern Nigerian politics. He knows how to test their resolve, peel away dissenting elements, and reduce them to talking points. His incumbency, deep networks, and strategic grip on both political and economic power make any loose coalition without structure or cohesion no threat to his re-election.
Unless the ADC coalition transforms itself from press briefings into an actionable, cohesive, and organized political movement with a recognizable leader and grassroots network, it will fail. And history will, once again, repeat itself.
Nigerians does not deserve recycled trial-and-error platforms. The ADC coalition, like CUPP before it, is walking a road well-traveled and well-known for its dead end.
— Rt Engr Chinedum Enyinnaya Orji is the former Speaker of Abia State House of Assembly and writing from Abuja, Nigeria
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